Archive for August, 2008

Local Authorities to Rescue Property Market

Sunday, August 31st, 2008

Sometimes I read the papers and wonder just where they get their ideas from. Maybe they have some bright stars working away in the background diligently researching the intricacies, effects and implications of the raft of policies that they need to produce. Or maybe they just think of things over the lunchtime Gin & Tonic.

This week we have the Lib Dem* Treasury spokesman Vince Cable leaping into the fray with a beany new idea that local councils can single-handedly support the currently slumping housing market by purchasing empty properties and developers’ unused land. I’m not sure what exactly they are supposed to do with these assets afterwards, and I’m not sure he does either, because a couple of seconds of thought came up with some rather obvious flaws.

Firstly, exactly who will fund this spending spree? Local tax-payers? Hardly. Council reserves? Well, they don’t have any these days. Government? I think not, they have bigger problems just balancing the books at the moment. Let’s not forget, they have to build on the land they aquire, so more cost there. Oh, and presumably they’d just grant themselves planning permission and side-step the normal messy round of objections and meetings? One certainly hopes not.

Now I have nothing against the Lib Dems, and in fact I can see this kind of policy being put forward by any of the main parties, and there is actually some possible good potential here to rebuild a better level of social housing stock at a reasonable price, but at the levels which it is likely to happen at it is not going to have the slightest effect on the property market.

Nice try Vince, keep ‘em coming.

* for non-UK readers, the Liberal Democrats (’Lib Dems’) are the second major party currently in opposition.

Mortgage rates coming down…for some

Sunday, August 17th, 2008

It looks like the Halifax are the latest to announce another series of rate cuts following a wider trend of slow lowering of rates across the board. The cuts are small and the banks seem to be edging forward on this front (albeit slowly).

Swap rates fell a while ago but up until now the banks didn’t seem to care (see my previous post for the reasoning). However, it appears that the herd is now moving so expect more small cuts to come with those who need less than 25% LTV benefiting most. It may well be worth holding out for a few weeks more before remortgaging.

Property Investor Show at Excel 19-21 Sept 08

Friday, August 15th, 2008

We’ll be exhibiting the new software range at the show so if you fancy dropping by, I’ll be on the Property Intellect stand (908) at the show so feel free to drop by and say hello! I’ll be the one with the coffee cup.

Update 18 Sept 08: Stand number changed to 908 (not unusual for these kind of shows!)

Agents move into lettings to increase revenue

Thursday, August 14th, 2008

One of the effects of the slowdown in sales has been the recent movement into the lettings arena by a number of estate agents. We are taking calls on a daily basis from would-be letting agents who are looking to lettings as the way to increase revenue and keep them afloat. They may be right – lettings is the one area of the market that is flourishing with a generally good supply of tenants as those would-be purchasers sit out the market problems in rented accommodation. This effect is reinforced by sellers – unable to sell to anyone despite monthly price drops – giving up and renting their properties. The overall effect is to increase supply and demand with the lettings market expanding as a result. An active and growing market can only be a good thing for (existing) landlords!

Where now for mortgage rates?

Tuesday, August 12th, 2008

Unless you have been living in a cave for the last few months you will be all too aware of the so-called ‘credit crunch’. Despite what you might be led to believe by the press the mechanics behind this is not a new phenomenon – indeed it is all part and parcel of how a free credit market works. Lenders normally act fairly rationally by lending only to those they believe represent a reasonable risk, but what is different in this instance is the depth of the swing (more of a lurch really) in the perception of risk by the whole market of lenders. It is this sudden change that is at the heart of the problem.
Lending is essentially a game of ‘pass the parcel’ and lenders are paralysed by the fear that when the music stops (i.e. the real bad debt figures become clear) – that they may be the ones holding the problem parcel. It’s a simplistic view, but sums up what the real problem is – fear. The practical upshot is that whilst this level of paranoia persists then no amount of government or central bank intervention will make any significant difference. Essentially we are stuck with high rates until the lender’s collective hunger for profit overcomes their fear of making a mistake.